Buyers keep asking whether they should wait for more inventory. In several submarkets the honest answer is that more inventory is not coming on the timeline they imagine.
The old incentive program, 421-a, stopped taking new projects in June 2022. Everything built under it had to be vested before that date, and those buildings are now delivering or already delivered. That is a finite pool and it is shrinking.
The replacement, 485-x, arrived in April 2024 with different eligibility, different affordability requirements, and different wage rules. It is oriented toward rental development. For condominium projects the path is narrower, which pushes developers toward rental or toward smaller condo projects with different economics.
Add construction cost, financing cost, and land basis, and the result is fewer new condo starts than the previous cycle at the same point.
What that means for a buyer. The buildings currently in the market are competing against a pipeline behind them that is thinner than usual. If a project is delivering in the next twenty four months, its competitive set is largely already known. That is unusual and it is useful.
What it does not mean. It does not mean prices only go up. Demand can soften faster than supply, and the city's tax and policy environment is genuinely unsettled right now. Thin supply is a support, not a guarantee.
The practical read. If you are buying to hold, a limited nearby pipeline is one of the few durable advantages you can actually verify before you sign. Count the sites within a few blocks that can still be built, and you will know more than any market report will tell you.
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